WEAK MONSOON AND IMPACT ON INDIA’S ECONOMY
TOPIC: (GS3) ECONOMY: THE HINDU
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has reported a 40% rainfall deficit in June and forecast belownormal July rains, raising fears of a “super El Niño” and its impact on agriculture, inflation, and GDP growth.
Monsoon and el Nino link
- Southwest Monsoon: Provides ~75% of India’s annual rainfall, vital for agriculture, reservoirs, and hydropower.
- El Niño: Warming of Pacific waters suppresses Indian rainfall, often with a lag.
- Super El Niño: Stronger phase causing severe droughts; past examples include 1972, 1982, 2009, 2015.
Agricultural Impact
- Agriculture contributes ~20% of GVA and employs 46% workforce.
- Kharif crops (paddy, maize, pulses, cotton) most vulnerable.
- Foodgrain output in 202425 was 357.73 MMT, but weak monsoon threatens this momentum.
- Farm incomes may fall by up to 10%, affecting rural demand.
Rural Economy & Demand
- Weak monsoon reduces rural incomes, contracting nonfarm services like construction.
- Industries hit: twowheelers, tractors, real estate in small towns.
- Food inflation: Prices of onions, tomatoes, edible oils already rising; RBI warns of growthinflation risks.
Broader Economic Effects
- GDP Growth: El Niño + drought may shave 20–65 basis points off GDP.
- Cropping Shifts:
- Paddy acreage ↑ in Punjab, Haryana, Bihar.
- Maize acreage ↓; pulses preferred for low water needs.
- Vegetables may be skipped in some regions.
- Fertiliser Stress: Supply constraints due to Iran conflict; Cabinet approved ₹41,533 crore subsidy for kharif fertilisers.
- External Sector: Imports may rise, widening Current Account Deficit; exports (12% of core exports) face risk.
Lessons from Past El Niño Years
- 2009: Two years of rainfall stress; irrigation cover <45%; crop GVA contracted 2.5% & 3.2%; inflation hit double digits.
- 2015: Monsoon disruption; crop GVA contracted but inflation muted due to food management, restrained MSP hikes, global commodity slump.
- Since 2000: 11 belownormal monsoons, 6 linked to El Niño, 5 with deficient rainfall.
India’s Preparedness
- Vulnerable Districts: 315 identified; 111 with poor irrigation.
- Reservoirs: Storage at 47.7 BCM (July 2, 2026) vs 78 BCM last year.
- Structural Concerns: Need to shift from crop insurance to risk reduction, invest in droughtresistant crops, expand irrigation, and modernise water management.
Way Forward
- ShortTerm: Strengthen buffer stocks, monitor inflation, support vulnerable farmers, diversify fertiliser imports.
- MediumTerm: Expand irrigation, promote waterefficient crops, improve crop insurance, enhance forecasting.
- LongTerm: Droughtproof economy via structural reforms, invest in R&D, modernise storage, diversify rural economy.
Conclusion
India must move from rainfall dependence to climate resilience, ensuring food security and economic stability in the face of recurring El Nino shocks.
PLFS & ASUSE 2025 AND INFORMAL ENTERPRISE TRENDS
TOPIC: (GS3) ECONOMY: THE HINDU
The National Statistics Office (NSO) has released two reports – PLFS 2025 and ASUSE 2025 – giving the first detailed picture of employment and informal enterprises across 46 millionplus cities in India.
Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS)
- Introduced in 2017 by NSO under MoSPI, replacing older Employment–Unemployment Surveys.
- Objective: Provide reliable labour market data for policy and skill development.
- Indicators measured:
- LFPR: Share of population working or seeking work.
- WPR: Share of population employed.
- UR: Share of labour force unemployed but seeking work.
- Current Weekly Status (CWS) & Usual Status (US) for employment measurement.
Key Findings – PLFS 2025
- LFPR in millionplus cities: 52.4% (slightly higher than other urban areas at 52.1%).
- WPR: 49.8% (vs 49.6% in other urban centres).
- Unemployment Rate (US): 4.9% (close to national urban average of 4.8%).
- Trend: Steady decline in unemployment since 201718.
- Female Participation: WPR for women rose from 17.9% (201718) to 25.5% (2025).
- Youth NEET share: Lower in millionplus cities compared to other urban areas.
- Nature of Employment:
- 58.5% in regular wage/salaried jobs (higher formalisation).
- Casual labour only 6.3%, showing stability.
- Longer average working hours in large cities.
Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE)
- Covers nonagricultural informal enterprises (excluding construction).
- Provides data on employment, GVA, productivity, wages, ownership patterns.
- Crucial for MSME policy, urban development, labour reforms.
Key Findings – ASUSE 2025
- Scale:
- 39 lakh unincorporated establishments.
- 1.98 crore informal workers.
- 13% of national informal establishments, 16% of informal employment.
- 21% of GVA from informal nonagricultural sector.
- Major Cities:
- Hyderabad: Highest informal workers (15.7 lakh).
- Kolkata: Largest enterprises (8.84 lakh).
- Delhi, Bengaluru, Surat, Jaipur, Mumbai – together ~40% of informal workers.
- Women in Informal Sector:
- 52 lakh workers (26% of informal workforce).
- Visakhapatnam: Highest female participation (42.5%).
- Surat: 41.4%.
- Srinagar: Lowest (10.5%).
- Productivity & Wages:
- Highest GVA per worker: PimpriChinchwad, Hyderabad, Delhi.
- Highest annual emoluments: Jaipur (₹2.33 lakh), Hyderabad (₹2.14 lakh).
- Average across 46 cities: ₹1.51 lakh per worker.
Policy Implications
- Promote quality employment in urban areas.
- Strengthen MSMEs & informal enterprises with credit and digital access.
- Enhance women’s participation through skill programmes and safe workplaces.
- Expand urban skill development under schemes like Skill India Mission.
- Improve social security coverage for informal workers (EPFO, ESI).
- Support productivity growth via technology adoption and formal finance.
- Align findings with Viksit Bharat 2047 vision and urban planning strategies.
Conclusion
The twin surveys show India’s labour market is becoming more formalised in big cities, but the informal sector remains central to urban employment, demanding balanced policies for inclusivity and productivity.
AGNIPATH SCHEME AND DEFENCE READINESS
TOPIC: (GS3) SEQURITY: THE HINDU
The Indian Armed Forces are reviewing the 25% retention cap under the Agnipath scheme, with proposals to raise retention levels for Agniveers to strengthen combat readiness and address manpower shortages.
Agnipath Scheme
- Launched in 2022 as a shortterm recruitment model for personnel below officer ranks.
- Eligibility: Youth aged 17.5–23 years.
- Tenure: 4 years (including 6 months training).
- Retention: 25% absorbed into regular service for 15 years; others released with benefits.
- Seva Nidhi Package: ~₹11.71 lakh (taxfree, no pension).
- Compensation: Up to ₹44 lakh for disability; ₹1 crore for death on duty.
- Employment Opportunities PostService:
- 10% reservation in CAPFs & Assam Rifles (MHA).
- Induction into merchant navy (Ports & Shipping Ministry).
- 10% quota in Coast Guard & DPSUs (MoD).
Current Retention Framework
- 25% retention based on merit and willingness.
- First batch (inducted 2023) completes tenure in 2026.
- Training infrastructure expanded; Agniveers receive pay, allowances, and welfare benefits similar to regular soldiers.
Proposal for Higher Retention
- Indian Navy: Considering ~75% retention.
- Indian Army & Air Force: Exploring ~50% retention.
- Discussions ongoing with Department of Military Affairs (DMA).
- Alternative approach: Differential deployment – higher retention in technical units, lower in conventional infantry.
Why Higher Retention is Being Considered
- Operational Experience: Agniveers gain exposure to advanced weapon systems; longer retention improves combat effectiveness.
- Lessons from Operation Sindoor: Agniveers performed well, but longerserving soldiers showed superior decisionmaking.
- Technological Modernisation: Navy & Air Force require sustained expertise for sophisticated platforms.
- Manpower Shortages: Army faces ~1.8 lakh personnel gap; retention helps bridge until recruitment stabilises.
- Unit Cohesion: Longer service builds camaraderie, leadership, and professionalism.
Significance for Defence Reforms
- Balancing youthful profile (core aim of Agnipath) with experienced manpower.
- Addresses challenges of rapid military modernisation and evolving security threats.
- Shapes India’s longterm manpower policy and operational preparedness.
- Supports broader reforms under Viksit Bharat 2047 and Atmanirbhar Bharat in Defence.
Conclusion
The Agnipath scheme remains an evolving reform; higher retention of Agniveers could balance youthful energy with seasoned expertise, ensuring a futureready Indian military.
INDIA’S FISHERIES CRISIS AND INSHORE ECOSYSTEMS
TOPIC: (GS3) ECONOMY: THE HINDU
The Government of India’s 2026 marine fisheries report claimed that 91% of fish stocks are sustainable, but experts warn that the real crisis lies in the destruction of inshore ecosystems, not stock numbers.
Government’s Claim vs Global View
- CMFRI Data (2022): 91.1% of 135 fish stocks termed “sustainable.”
- FAO Profile: India’s fisheries have plateaued; most stocks fully exploited.
- Methodological Issue: India relies on landing data (catch numbers), unlike global stock assessment methods that measure actual biomass.
- Analysts caution this may reflect India’s push to compete with China’s fishing industry.
Inshore Waters
- Narrow continental shelf (except Gujarat & Maharashtra) overlaps with territorial sea (12 nautical miles).
- This zone is the most fertile breeding ground for shrimp and coastal species.
- Scientists describe the inshore benthic ecosystem as “destroyed.”
- Causes of damage:
- Dams blocking nutrient flow.
- Mangrove loss reducing breeding grounds.
- Industrial & urban pollution entering coastal waters.
Trawling – The Major Driver
- Introduced in 1960s, now expanded massively.
- India has 64,414 mechanised vessels, many upgraded with Chinese engines.
- Trawlers scrape seabed, destroying marine life and creating conflict with traditional fishers.
- Rule: No trawling within 5 nautical miles, but enforcement is weak due to limited patrols and exclusion of fishers from management.
Deep-Sea Fishing
- Government promotes deep-sea fishing, but FAO warns it adds only marginal output.
- Requires more fuel, technology, and investment, burdening small fishers.
- Core issue of inshore mismanagement remains unresolved.
Case Study – Palk Bay
- Indian trawlers often cross into Sri Lankan waters, harming local fishers.
- Disputes over Katchatheevu island show how mechanised fleets override ecological and political boundaries.
Way Forward
- Strengthen coastal governance at federal and state levels.
- Address marine pollution and restore mangroves.
- Strictly regulate mechanised trawling with fisher participation.
- Shift focus from catch numbers to ecosystem health assessments.
- Align with Blue Economy goals under India’s Maritime Vision 2030.
Conclusion
India’s fisheries crisis is less about stock numbers and more about saving inshore ecosystems, the true foundation of coastal livelihoods and marine sustainability.
INSOLVENCY VS ANTIMONEY LAUNDERING
TOPIC: (GS3) ECONOMY: THE HINDU
The NCLAT ruled that the IBC moratorium cannot shield assets attached under the PMLA if they are alleged to be “proceeds of crime,” clarifying boundaries between insolvency law and antimoney laundering enforcement.
Background of the Case
- Company involved: Siddhi Vinayak Logistics Ltd.
- Allegations: Promoters accused of fraud, forgery, conspiracy, diversion of loans worth ₹1,600 crore.
- ED Action (2017): Assets provisionally attached under PMLA.
- CIRP Initiation: Company entered insolvency; Section 14 moratorium triggered.
- Conflict: ED withdrew ₹2.29 crore and later attached 6,000 vehicles despite moratorium.
- Liquidator’s Appeal: Claimed ED violated IBC protections; NCLT rejected, matter escalated to NCLAT.
Why Do IBC and PMLA Clash?
- IBC: Preserves company assets to repay creditors fairly.
- PMLA: Allows ED to seize assets suspected as criminal proceeds.
- Core Question: Does IBC moratorium extend to assets under PMLA investigation?
NCLAT’s Key Ruling
- Both laws operate in separate domains.
- IBC protects legitimate assets, not wealth linked to crime.
- Section 14 moratorium cannot override PMLA’s national interest.
- Insolvency tribunals (NCLT/NCLAT) cannot question ED’s attachment orders; challenges must go through PMLA Special Court.
- Referenced Supreme Court judgment (Embassy Property case) and IBBI circular (2025) advising insolvency professionals to use PMLA’s legal route.
- Strong observation: IBC is not “a holy Ganges” to cleanse criminal wrongdoing.
Implications of the Judgment
- For Creditors: Recovery limited to lawful assets; criminal proceeds excluded.
- For Insolvency Professionals: Must coordinate with PMLA courts for asset release.
- For Governance: Reinforces antimoney laundering framework alongside insolvency reforms.
- For Policy: Highlights need for better coordination between financial regulation, corporate law, and criminal enforcement.
Broader Perspective
- India’s insolvency regime aims at economic revival, while PMLA safeguards national financial integrity.
- Similar conflicts arise globally between insolvency and anticrime laws; India’s ruling aligns with international practice.
- Strengthens India’s compliance with FATF standards on antimoney laundering.
Conclusion
The ruling underscores that insolvency cannot be a safe haven for criminal wealth — India’s legal system will protect creditors’ rights but not at the cost of national interest in fighting financial crime.
ARROW3 MISSILE DEFENCE SYSTEM
TOPIC: (GS3) SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: THE HINDU
Germany has announced a second Arrow3 missile defence site in Bavaria, complementing the first battery near Berlin, expanding its longrange protection network.
Arrow3
- Arrow3: Latest interceptor of the Arrow Weapon System (AWS).
- Jointly developed: By Israel and the United States.
- Purpose: Neutralises ballistic missiles outside the Earth’s atmosphere before reentry.
- AWS Significance: First national, operational, standalone AntiTactical Ballistic Missile (ATBM) defence system.
Features of Arrow3
- Interceptor: Twostage, solidfuelled missile.
- Range: Flyout capability up to 2,400 km.
- Launch System: Fits in a 21inch vertical tube.
- Altitude: Can intercept threats at ~100 km above Earth.
- Speed: Hypersonic – travels 5× speed of sound.
- Radar & Battle Management: Early warning, multitarget acquisition, extended tracking.
How It Works
- Uses hittokill technology – destroys warhead by direct impact.
- Missile launched vertically, redirected to interception point.
- Electrooptical sensor locks target for precision strike.
- Provides layered defence against short and mediumrange ballistic missiles.
Strategic Importance
- Enhances Europe’s missile defence architecture amid rising global threats.
- Supports NATO’s collective security framework.
- Demonstrates Israel–US defence collaboration in advanced missile technology.
- Example of exoatmospheric defence capability, critical in modern warfare.
Conclusion
Arrow3 represents a nextgeneration shield against ballistic threats, combining speed, altitude, and precision to secure nations against evolving missile challenges.
I2SEA SUBMARINE CABLE SYSTEM
TOPIC: (GS3) SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY: THE HINDU
A consortium of Lightstorm, Microsoft, Singtel, and Tata Communications has announced the I2SEA submarine cable project, a 3,600km fibre system connecting India’s east coast with Singapore and Malaysia, expected to be operational by 2029.
I2SEA Project
- Consortium Partners: Lightstorm (Singapore), Microsoft, Singtel, Tata Communications.
- Length: 3,600 km optical fibre subsea cable.
- Timeline: ReadyforService (RFS) by Q4 2029.
- Purpose: Designed to meet rising demand for AI infrastructure, hyperscalers, and GPUbased workloads.
- Connectivity: Direct links from Hyderabad and Chennai to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur.
- Landing Stations:
- Machilipatnam (AP): Shortest subsea access to Hyderabad.
- South Chennai: New landing point for Tamil Nadu.
Technical Features
- Deep Burial Strategy: Cable buried up to 3 metres for protection and uptime.
- Resilience: Ensures secure transmission of internet traffic, cloud services, and financial data.
- AIReady Infrastructure: Supports highcapacity links for training and inference workloads.
Strategic Significance
- Strengthens India’s role in the global digital economy.
- Enhances data security and reliability for enterprises.
- Supports Digital India and AI innovation ecosystems.
- Provides infrastructure for crossborder financial flows and cloud services.
- Reduces dependency on existing congested subsea routes, improving latency and bandwidth.
Conclusion
The I2SEA cable system marks a strategic leap in India’s digital connectivity, positioning the country as a hub for AIdriven global networks.
DOCTRINE OF PER INCURIAM
TOPIC: (GS2) POLITY: THE HINDU
The Supreme Court recently clarified when a judgment can be declared per incuriam, stressing that precedents passed in ignorance of binding law or larger bench rulings cannot be treated as binding.
Meaning of Per Incuriam
- Latin term meaning “through lack of care.”
- Refers to judgments delivered without considering relevant statutes or earlier authoritative rulings.
- Such decisions are not binding precedents and may be corrected to maintain judicial consistency.
Relation to Other Doctrines
- Linked to Stare Decisis: principle of following precedents.
- Exception to Article 141 of the Constitution, which makes Supreme Court judgments binding.
- Applies only to ratio decidendi (binding reasoning), not to obiter dicta (persuasive remarks).
Case Laws & Examples
- State of Assam v. Ripa Sarma: Judgments ignoring earlier rulings of equal or larger benches are per incuriam.
- Recent SC Observation:
- A ruling is per incuriam if its ratio conflicts with an earlier larger bench decision or ignores a statutory provision.
- Bench strength, not number of judges, determines binding nature.
- Coequal benches must refer disagreements to a larger bench.
- Incorrect conclusions alone do not make a judgment per incuriam.
Significance
- Ensures judicial discipline and consistency.
- Prevents misuse of precedents to justify errors.
- Strengthens the authority of larger bench rulings in India’s judicial hierarchy.
Conclusion
The doctrine of per incuriam acts as a safeguard, ensuring that judicial precedents remain rooted in law and authoritative rulings, not in oversight or error.
